# F**K | Trump LASHES OUT Source: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TAprAV0J_OE Recap page: https://rapidrecap.app/video/TAprAV0J_OE Generated: 2026-02-20T22:34:10.003+00:00 --- ## Quick Overview The host argues that Donald Trump's recent actions, specifically threatening to use executive orders to issue tariffs and blasting the Supreme Court for striking down tariffs, are politically motivated and ultimately detrimental to the US economy, as these tariffs hurt Americans who pay them and benefit only a few cronies like Howard Lutnick's family firm, making the current situation more bearish than anticipated in his probability models. **Key Points:** - Donald Trump's administration took a massive win for his administration by turning a potential loss into a disaster by threatening executive tariffs after the Supreme Court struck down previous tariffs. - The average tariff imposed by the US on other countries before the recent tariff removals was 2.2% to 2.4%, but the actual average paid by Americans was closer to 1.8% or 1.2% after exceptions. - Howard Lutnick's family firm reportedly bought the rights to tariff refunds for 20-30 cents on the dollar, making 3-5x returns after the Supreme Court struck down the tariffs, which the host calls 'Crony Corrupt America.' - The host's probability model (Bear Bull Scale) suggested a 25% chance of Trump folding on tariffs (Best Case), a 45% chance of tariffs fading (Cautiously Bullish), and a 30% chance of a defensive scenario involving gold up/bonds down (Worst Case). - The current situation, with Trump aggressively pursuing tariffs despite the Supreme Court ruling, aligns with the most bearish scenario (Scenario 3) where the Fed is forced to keep rates high due to inflation fueled by tariffs. - The speaker argues that the current environment, marked by high inflation and rising long-term unemployment (27 weeks unemployed rising), suggests that the expected 10% flat tariff will likely not materialize, making the situation more difficult for the Federal Reserve to justify rate cuts. ![Screenshot at 11:25: The probability distribution chart showing Scenario 1 \(Trump Folds\) at 25%, Scenario 2 \(Tariffs Fade\) at 45%, and Scenario 3 \(Defensive/Gold up, bonds down\) at 30%, illustrating the speaker's initial market expectations.](https://ss.rapidrecap.app/screens/TAprAV0J_OE/00-11-25.jpg) **Context:** The video analyzes the political and economic fallout following a Supreme Court decision regarding tariffs imposed by the Trump administration. The speaker focuses on how a specific individual, Howard Lutnick, allegedly profited from this policy through tariff refund rights, contrasting this outcome with the initial expectations laid out in the speaker's proprietary 'Bear Bull Scale' probability model. The discussion centers on the political motivations behind Trump's continued aggressive stance on tariffs despite the judicial setback and the resulting economic implications, particularly concerning inflation and Federal Reserve policy. ## Detailed Analysis The speaker begins by asserting that Donald Trump managed to turn a potential political loss regarding tariffs into a self-inflicted disaster by aggressively threatening new tariffs after the Supreme Court struck down existing ones. He details that the average tariff rate imposed by the US on other countries was around 2.2% to 2.4%, but the actual cost borne by Americans was lower, around 1.8% or 1.2% after exceptions. The speaker highlights a specific instance of alleged cronyism involving Howard Lutnick's family firm, which reportedly purchased the rights to tariff refunds for 20-30 cents on the dollar, yielding massive returns (3-5x) after the Supreme Court invalidated the tariffs. The speaker labels this 'Crony Corrupt America.' He then references his own 'Bear Bull Scale' probability chart, which had assigned a 70% chance to bullish outcomes (Scenario 1: Trump Folds at 25%; Scenario 2: Tariffs Fade at 45%) and only a 30% chance to the bearish outcome (Scenario 3: Section 122 + 232/301 scenario, involving gold up and bonds down). The speaker admits his earlier expectation that Trump would fold or that tariffs would fade (Scenario 2) was wrong, as Trump is now doubling down, leading to uncertainty and political attacks against the judiciary. He points out that the current data, showing rising long-term unemployment (27 weeks or more), suggests economic weakness that would typically prompt the Fed to cut rates, but the tariff situation prevents this. The speaker concludes that the current environment is likely to keep yields higher for longer, making it difficult for the Fed to justify rate cuts, and that the stock Ubiquity (which he previously analyzed) has dropped over 50% since May 23rd, failing to rebound as expected. ### Tariff Situation Analysis - Trump turned a political loss into a disaster by threatening executive tariffs after the Supreme Court struck down previous ones - Actual tariffs paid by Americans were lower than the headline rate, around 1.2% to 1.8% after exceptions - The current situation is more bearish than expected. ### Cronyism Example - Howard Lutnick's family firm bought tariff refund rights for 20-30 cents on the dollar, netting 3-5x returns after the Supreme Court struck down the tariffs. ### Probability Model Reassessment - Initial model gave 70% to bullish scenarios (Trump folds or tariffs fade) and 30% to the defensive/bearish scenario (Scenario 3). ### Economic Indicators - Long-term unemployment (27 weeks+) is rising, typically preceding a recession, which further constrains the Fed's ability to cut rates. ### Trump's Political Maneuvering - Trump is aggressively attacking the Supreme Court and Congress, suggesting he lacks the political capital for tariff negotiation or compromise. ### Stock Specifics (Ubiquity) - The stock Ubiquity has dropped over 50% since May 23rd and failed to hold support levels, suggesting weakness despite macroeconomic factors. ### Conclusion - The speaker favors hiring human analysts over AI for complex legal/political analysis, as current events show AI's inability to predict the irrational political actions undermining prior economic assumptions. ![Screenshot at 00:26: The speaker pointing to a spreadsheet titled 'Bear Bull Scale' showing probability distributions for different economic scenarios.](https://ss.rapidrecap.app/screens/TAprAV0J_OE/00-00-26.jpg) ![Screenshot at 01:32: The speaker gesturing to illustrate the difference between the 2.2-2.4% headline tariff rate and the 1.8% actual rate paid by Americans.](https://ss.rapidrecap.app/screens/TAprAV0J_OE/00-01-32.jpg) ![Screenshot at 02:26: The speaker showing a comparison of tariff rates, indicating the US average was higher than most other countries.](https://ss.rapidrecap.app/screens/TAprAV0J_OE/00-02-26.jpg) ![Screenshot at 03:55: The speaker opens a military ammunition box labeled 'BIOHAZARD' while discussing the political maneuvering around tariffs.](https://ss.rapidrecap.app/screens/TAprAV0J_OE/00-03-55.jpg) ![Screenshot at 11:25: The screen displays the 'Probability Distribution' chart with Scenario 1 at 25%, Scenario 2 at 45%, and Scenario 3 at 30%.](https://ss.rapidrecap.app/screens/TAprAV0J_OE/00-11-25.jpg)