# The Macro Framework for Investing in the Next Decade w/ Mark Yusko Source: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PZjVqlMySTo Recap page: https://rapidrecap.app/video/PZjVqlMySTo Generated: 2026-01-29T16:09:17.942+00:00 --- ## Quick Overview Mark Yusko asserts that the greatest wealth arises from being an early investor in misunderstood innovation, emphasizing that feeling uncomfortable about an investment decision signals being on the right track, and identifies the current opportunity set in the ABCDs of the digital age: AI, Blockchain, Chips, and Data. **Key Points:** - The greatest wealth comes from investing in innovations before most people understand them, requiring non-consensus actions where one expects to be mocked or ridiculed. - Yusko focuses investment opportunity in the "ABCDs of the digital age": A is AI, B is blockchain, C is chips, and D is data, emphasizing the value of intersections between these areas. - Data is the new oil, but its value is realized when organized, which blockchains facilitate; processing requires computing power (chips), and AI serves as the tool to make decisions based on that data. - Yusko expressed extreme skepticism about current valuations of leading AI companies, stating, "I wouldn't buy Open AI for anything at this valuation. I I would short it if I could." - He believes the intersection of AI and Blockchain is crucial, citing investment in technologies like Fully Homomorphic Encryption (FHE) to solve fundamental privacy issues, allowing data to be worked on while remaining encrypted. - Regarding institutional adoption, Yusko predicts other university endowments will follow Harvard's lead in allocating to Bitcoin, though this adoption is typically slow and driven by pioneering individual CIOs, citing a past failed attempt to gain institutional interest in Bitcoin at $6,000. - For his 2024 surprises, Yusko anticipates a recession (contrary to consensus), no Fed rate cuts due to upside economic surprises, and suggests Bitcoin may not hit new all-time highs this year, forecasting a tough short term before a glorious cycle peak of $400k-$500k in 2028-2029. **Context:** The interview features John Gill, host of Milk Road Macro, speaking with Mark Yusko, Founder, CEO, and CIO of Morgan Creek Capital Management, known for specializing in alternative investments and innovation. Yusko shares his investment philosophy, which centers on contrarian bets on disruptive technology, contrasting this with consensus investing, and details his current framework for identifying future wealth-generating sectors, particularly within the digital transformation landscape. ## Detailed Analysis Mark Yusko outlines his core investment thesis: wealth creation demands investing in innovation before the market understands it, meaning investors must tolerate feeling uncomfortable and facing ridicule for non-consensus actions. He structures current opportunities around the "ABCDs": AI, Blockchain, Chips, and Data, arguing that the intersections of these four areas offer the highest potential, exemplified by blockchain organizing data, chips processing it, and AI using it for decision-making. Yusko warns against overpaying for current AI application leaders like OpenAI but sees infrastructure plays as critical, highlighting technologies like Fully Homomorphic Encryption (FHE) as vital for securing data in motion, thereby protecting privacy which he views as a fundamental human right. Discussing institutional adoption, he notes that while Harvard's move into Bitcoin will inspire others, the process is slow due to group psychology, where boards often prioritize conformity over the best ideas, recounting an experience where institutions rejected a zero-fee Bitcoin investment proposal at $6,000. Finally, Yusko revealed his 11 market surprises for the year, including a potential recession, no Fed rate cuts if growth remains strong, and a difficult short-term outlook for Bitcoin, projecting a major upswing later in the cycle around 2028-2029. ### Investment Philosophy - Greatest wealth comes from early investment in innovation - Feeling good about an investment means it is already priced in - Uncomfortable, non-consensus actions lead to superior returns - Quality of an idea is judged by the quality of its detractors ### Digital Age Investment Framework (ABCDs) - D is Data (the base layer, like unrefined oil) - B is Blockchain (organizing data efficiently) - C is Chips (processing power, looking at photonics) - A is AI (a tool for making decisions, not the end goal) ### AI and Blockchain Intersection - Focus on securing data in motion using technologies like Fully Homomorphic Encryption (FHE) - FHE allows computation on encrypted data, solving breach risks associated with data-at-rest encryption ### Institutional Adoption of Digital Assets - Harvard's allocation to Bitcoin will inspire others, but adoption is slow due to endowment boards prioritizing group conformity over bold ideas - Institutions previously rejected zero-fee Bitcoin investment offers at $6,000 ### 2024 Market Surprises (Non-Consensus Views) - Surprise 1: A recession occurs, contrary to consensus belief that it is outlawed - Surprise 2: The Fed does not cut rates if economic growth surprises to the upside (5% growth cited) - Surprise 3: A bare market occurs in general markets, despite expectations for 12% gains - Surprise 10: Bitcoin will not make new all-time highs this year; the next cycle targets $400k-$500k by 2028-2029 ### Geopolitical and Commodity Surprises - Dollar continues to collapse due to interventions like the yen bailout - Japanese equities face severe risk if the yen strengthens significantly - China will outperform due to playing a different geopolitical game (Go vs. Checkers)