Coercive Diplomacy: Venezuela, Iran, and . . . Greenland?

Quick Overview

The Hoover Institution's Goodfellows panel discusses the highly successful, complex raid to arrest Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro and his wife in January 2025, viewing it as consistent with President Trump's prior use of coercive diplomacy rather than traditional regime change, while Sir Neil Ferguson links it to the historical Roosevelt Corollary, now termed the Trump Corollary, noting that while execution was impeccable, the post-intervention exit strategy remains unclear amid potential civil war.

Key Points: The operation to arrest Maduro and his wife was a "highly successful raid" with a "32 to zero against the Cuban defenders of of Maduro," demonstrating exemplary force execution. HR McMaster views the action as consistent with Trump's approach, rooted in heightened desire due to the Venezuelan exodus and Maduro exporting organized crime, contrasting it with a desire for a deal first, similar to the unsuccessful negotiation attempts with Iran. Sir Neil Ferguson connects the action to the 'Trump corollary' within the National Security Strategy, which asserts the US right to intervene if a Latin American government is badly run, echoing the historical Roosevelt Corollary. John Cochran offers a gloomy forecast, predicting a recipe for civil war among the old regime remnants, narco-terrorist gangs, and ordinary people, as the US seems unwilling to deploy boots on the ground for stabilization. The panelists agree that coercive diplomacy, as employed, focuses on changing regime behavior (narcotics trafficking, supporting adversaries) rather than the nature of the regime, which McMaster believes is necessary for fundamental change. John Cochran suggests that instead of military intervention for drug control, legalizing drugs in the US could undercut cartels and reduce crime, while also proposing the US should buy Greenland for $50 billion as an alternative to conflict. The panel speculates that Cuba is the "very obvious next shoe to drop" following the Venezuela operation, given that Venezuela was Cuba's lifeline and Marco Rubio, who appears highly influential, has fingerprints on the recent action.