Why Israel & Turkey Are Heading To War Over Syria

Quick Overview

Turkey and Israel are heading toward a major confrontation over their diametrically opposed visions for Syria's future following the late 2024 collapse of the Assad regime, as Turkey seeks a centralized state to crush Kurdish autonomy while Israel actively encourages fragmentation to maintain a buffer against Turkish influence.

Key Points: The Assad regime collapsed at the end of 2024 after a Turkish-backed HTS offensive, leading Turkey to become the primary power broker and successfully pressuring the PKK to dissolve its armed struggle in May 2025. Israel views the Turkish-backed HTS and its leader Ahmed Alshara, who have radical Islamist pasts, with distrust, fearing a reversion to jihadism and actively seeking a buffer zone in southern Syria. Israel launched a preemptive invasion after Assad fled, seizing the UN buffer zone and bombing Syrian military assets to establish a demilitarized zone south of Damascus enforced by the Israeli Air Force. Israel escalated regional tensions by bombing a Qatari government complex in September 2025, targeting Hamas leadership, an act unprecedented against a GCC member and close US ally, which deeply alarmed Turkey. Israel intervened militarily on behalf of the Druze minority in southern Syria in July 2025 after clashes with Bedouins, bombing Damascus and forcing the Syrian army to withdraw to secure a proxy buffer against the Damascus government and Turkish influence. Turkey fears Israel's strategy of keeping Syria divided benefits Israeli security interests by undermining Turkish goals of crushing Syrian Kurdish autonomy, which Turkey views as essential to stopping the PKK insurgency. Turkey's options are limited: a direct invasion of Kurdish areas risks reigniting the PKK war and alienating the West, while aligning with Russia risks losing crucial US diplomatic support for their centralized Syria vision.

Context: The analysis details the geopolitical fallout following the collapse of the Assad regime in Syria near the end of 2024, an event achieved by the Turkish-backed HTS faction after 13 years of civil war. This shift immediately positioned Turkey as the leading regional influence, promising solutions to refugee crises and the long-standing threat from the PKK, which was linked to US-backed Syrian Kurdish factions. However, this new dynamic immediately created irreconcilable conflicts with Israel, whose primary goal is containing Iranian influence and preventing Turkish dominance over a unified Syria.