# In which I lose faith in quantum computing Source: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MukMOZ0J-Ww Recap page: https://rapidrecap.app/video/MukMOZ0J-Ww Generated: 2025-09-27T15:36:01.033+00:00 --- ## Quick Overview The speaker concludes that quantum computing is hugely overhyped, predicting that most commercial interest will collapse in the next few years because real-world business problems are often too basic or too disorganized for quantum computers to offer a meaningful advantage over conventional methods. **Key Points:** - The speaker moved from initial skepticism to tentative belief, but now believes quantum computing is "hugely overhyped" and commercial interest will collapse soon. - Quantum computing's foundational promise rests on established physics, specifically using entanglement to speed up certain calculations, with early use cases including breaking decryption systems, quantum chemistry, and logistics optimization. - Despite impressive technological progress, with current qubits reaching around a thousand and realizing first error correction protocols, the speaker sees no appreciable impact on real-world business, stating, "I just can't see that this will have any appreciable impact on realworld business like ever." - In quantum chemistry and materials, the speaker asserts that Artificial Intelligence is currently 'eating quantum computing slunch' because AI can latch onto regularities in naturally occurring systems. - Real-world logistics and optimization struggles are often due to organizational chaos, exemplified by a study showing airlines do not rationally price flights because 'big airlines make their pricing decisions with several different departments and they pursue different goals.' - The speaker believes the main driver for quantum interest is code breaking for governments/intelligence organizations, not business applications, and predicts that smaller nations will back out as devices become more expensive. - The ultimate conclusion is that quantum computers will remain research devices, and stocks of companies built on this premise are likely to collapse, with the speaker feeling 'a little silly' for taking so long to realize this. **Context:** The video analyzes the speaker's evolving perspective on quantum computing, a technology based on quantum mechanics principles known since the 1970s, which promises speedups for specific calculations like decryption and simulating molecular bonds. The speaker initially saw promise due to technological advancements, such as reaching qubit counts up to a thousand and implementing early error correction, but has since revisited the practical applications and found them lacking for real-world commercial use. ## Detailed Analysis The speaker initially found quantum computing promising because it is based on well-established physics, with early theoretical advantages identified in breaking ciphers, simulating quantum chemistry/material science, solving logistics optimization (like aircraft positioning or warehouse stocking), and asset management. While acknowledging stunning technological progress in the last decade, including reaching around a thousand qubits and demonstrating error correction, the speaker now believes the technology is overhyped. The core issue is the gap between theoretical advantage and practical business impact. In quantum chemistry, AI is seen as superior because it capitalizes on natural regularities, making quantum computation potentially the 'world's most expensive way to invent a slightly better plastic bottle.' For logistics, the speaker notes that real-world organizations struggle with basic organizational problems—like airlines failing to price flights rationally due to departmental conflicts—which swamp any fine-tuning advantage a quantum computer could offer. Finance applications, like high-speed trading, are also discounted because the necessary speed advantage would be negated by readout and processing times. The speaker concludes that the primary driver for quantum interest remains government-level code breaking, not business utility, leading to the prediction that many companies' stocks based on quantum bets will collapse as these machines remain research devices. ### Technology Evolution - Quantum principles known since the 1970s - Use cases include breaking decryption, quantum chemistry, and logistics optimization - Technological progress includes qubits up to a thousand and first error correction protocols ### Critique of Commercial Applications - Quantum chemistry is being eclipsed by AI - Logistics problems are often organizational failures, not computational bottlenecks - Financial applications lack real-world advantage due to readout/processing latency ### Final Verdict and Prediction - Commercial interest will collapse in the next few years - Quantum computers will remain research devices - Government interest in code-breaking is the main driver - Company stocks based on quantum bets are likely to collapse ### Sponsor Message - The speaker endorses Brilliant.org for breaking down complex ideas like quantum mechanics, algorithms, and statistics into interactive lessons with visualizations, offering viewers a 20% discount on premium subscription.