# SHOCK POLL Shows Trump Midterm WIPEOUT Source: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KAOLlNHpRkk Recap page: https://rapidrecap.app/video/KAOLlNHpRkk Generated: 2026-02-19T00:02:38.751+00:00 --- ## Quick Overview The hosts analyze recent polling data suggesting a potential Republican wipeout in the 2024 general election and 2026 congressional races, noting that while Democrats lead in hypothetical matchups, the underlying enthusiasm and loyalty of the Republican base, particularly regarding Trump, remain strong factors that could shift outcomes. **Key Points:** - A hypothetical 2024 presidential election redo poll shows Kamala Harris leading Donald Trump by 8 points (Harris +8, Trump -1) in the 'Now' scenario, a massive shift from the actual November 2024 result where Trump led by 1 point. - The same poll data suggests Democrats lead in the 2026 Congressional race by 16 points among voters who did not vote in the 2024 presidential election. - Trump voters show higher loyalty to Republican congressional candidates (83-point margin in a redo) compared to Harris voters sticking with Democrats (89-point margin). - The hosts discuss that Republican dissatisfaction with Trump is concentrated among voters who voted against him in 2020, but this group is small, suggesting Trump's core base is solid. - The Democratic base shows a stronger tendency to stick with the party's candidate in general elections compared to the Republican base in hypothetical 2026 congressional races. - The segment references Dave Chappelle visiting the Alex Pratti memorial in Minneapolis, following Pratti's death by federal agents on January 24th. ![Screenshot at 08:22: CNN analyst presents a graphic showing that in a hypothetical redo of the 2024 presidential election, Kamala Harris leads Donald Trump by 8 points 'Now', compared to a 1-point lead for Trump in the 'Actual' November 2024 poll.](https://ss.rapidrecap.app/screens/KAOLlNHpRkk/00-08-22.jpg) **Context:** The segment on 'Breaking Points with Krystal & Saagar' features hosts Ryan Grim and Emily Jashinsky discussing recent polling trends and their implications for the 2024 presidential and 2026 congressional elections. The core of the discussion centers on a New York Times focus group and an NBC News poll, which suggest a significant shift in Democratic favorability among certain voter segments, contrasting with the loyalty of the Republican base to Donald Trump. ## Detailed Analysis The discussion begins with Ryan Grim presenting data from a New York Times focus group suggesting that Democrats might be able to claim a 'win' on certain issues, like demanding body camera funding for federal agents in the wake of the Alex Pratti shooting, even though Republicans control the House, Senate, and White House. Emily Jashinsky shifts the focus to electoral polling, specifically citing a hypothetical redo of the 2024 presidential election where Kamala Harris now leads Donald Trump by 8 points, a significant swing from the initial poll showing Trump up by 1 point. Jashinsky notes that every cohort across the demographic spectrum in the redo poll favored a progressive candidate over a moderate one. Grim then displays CNN polling data showing Democrats have a 16-point lead among voters who did not vote in the 2024 presidential election for the 2026 congressional race, while Trump voters are sticking with GOP candidates by an 83-point margin, compared to Harris voters sticking with Democrats by an 89-point margin. Grim argues that the key takeaway is that Trump voters are incredibly loyal, whereas the movement away from Trump is visible among voters who didn't vote for him in 2020 but might vote for him in 2024, indicating a potential vulnerability that Democrats are heavily weighing. ### DHS Funding & Political Leverage - Democrats sent Trump a counteroffer on DHS funding while the agency shutdown was grinding on - Republicans control the House, Senate, and White House, yet Democrats still maneuvered to secure funding for items like body cams despite the shutdown threat. ### 2024 Presidential Polling Shifts - A hypothetical redo poll shows Kamala Harris leading Donald Trump by 8 points now, compared to Trump's 1-point lead in the actual November 2024 scenario, indicating a massive potential shift among non-voters. ### 2026 Congressional Polling - Voters who skip the 2024 presidential election show a +16 point Democratic advantage for the 2026 Congress, while Trump voters show an 83-point margin for GOP candidates vs. an 89-point margin for Democrats among Harris voters. ### Voter Loyalty Analysis - Republican voters, especially those who voted for Trump in 2020, show extremely high loyalty, which is a key factor Republicans can rely on, contrasting with Democratic voter enthusiasm. ### Issue Coverage - Dave Chappelle visited the Alex Pratti memorial in Minneapolis after Pratti was killed by federal agents on January 24th, highlighting ongoing cultural tensions. ![Screenshot at 00:00: The hosts, Ryan Grim and Krystal Ball \(implied presence/show context\), are seated at the 'Breaking Points' desk with topics listed below including 'SHUTDOWN', 'EPSTEIN', and 'SUDAN'.](https://ss.rapidrecap.app/screens/KAOLlNHpRkk/00-00-00.jpg) ![Screenshot at 01:32: CNBC headline displayed: 'Democrats send Trump DHS funding counteroffer as agency shutdown grinds on'.](https://ss.rapidrecap.app/screens/KAOLlNHpRkk/00-01-32.jpg) ![Screenshot at 01:00: A split-screen graphic showing Krystal Jashinsky on the left and a video clip of Dave Chappelle visiting the Alex Pratti memorial on the right.](https://ss.rapidrecap.app/screens/KAOLlNHpRkk/00-01-00.jpg) ![Screenshot at 08:22: CNN graphic displaying hypothetical 2024 presidential election polling margins, showing Kamala Harris leading Donald Trump by 8 points in the 'NOW' redo scenario.](https://ss.rapidrecap.app/screens/KAOLlNHpRkk/00-08-22.jpg) ![Screenshot at 09:53: CNN graphic comparing 2026 Congressional margin based on 2024 voting behavior, showing Democrats +16 among those who didn't vote in 2024.](https://ss.rapidrecap.app/screens/KAOLlNHpRkk/00-09-53.jpg)