Why Zelensky Wants Tomahawks And What It Actually Takes to Use Them

Quick Overview

The primary takeaway is that supplying Ukraine with Tomahawk cruise missiles is a strategic military decision that could significantly alter the battlefield dynamics by allowing strikes deep behind Russian lines, but it is complicated by the political risk of escalation with Russia, which currently profits heavily from oil sales despite lower prices.

Key Points: Tomahawk missiles, long-range subsonic cruise missiles, can be launched from U.S. and NATO ships and submarines, or ground-based systems like the Oshkosh Defense X-MAV. The current cost of a barrel of oil is $57.02, which is $5 less than when the speaker last checked, meaning Russia is making less daily revenue from oil exports ($61.2 million/day from 5.1 million barrels exported) compared to earlier. The Flamingo missile, mentioned as a comparison, has a warhead of 2,540 lbs, more than double the Tomahawk's 1,000 lbs warhead. Giving Ukraine Tomahawks provides deep-strike capability against logistics, command posts, and refineries, potentially forcing Russia to collapse its front lines due to lack of supplies. President Trump previously dangled the prospect of giving Ukraine Tomahawks during a meeting with Zelensky to extract concessions, suggesting a political angle to weapon transfers. The speaker advocates for providing the missiles to Ukraine, arguing that the military utility outweighs the political risk of Russian escalation, as Russia is already economically strained.

Context: The video analyzes the potential impact and implications of supplying Ukraine with U.S.-made Tomahawk cruise missiles, contrasting this capability with existing Russian military and economic situations. The discussion frames the decision as a strategic military calculus involving escalation risk versus tactical advantage, referencing past political interactions between President Trump and Ukrainian President Zelensky regarding such weapon transfers.

Detailed Analysis

The analyst argues that supplying Ukraine with Tomahawk cruise missiles is a critical military move that offers Ukraine deep-strike capability against Russian logistics, command posts, and energy infrastructure, which could force a collapse of Russian front lines. Tomahawks are primarily naval/submarine launched from Vertical Launch Systems (VLS) housed in sealed canisters, though ground-based mobile launchers like the Oshkosh X-MAV exist, sharing the same canister concept. The analyst notes that the current oil price of $57.02 per barrel means Russia is earning significantly less daily revenue from oil exports compared to earlier periods, making their economy vulnerable. A comparison is drawn to the larger Flamingo missile (2,540 lb warhead vs. Tomahawk's 1,000 lbs). The speaker references a past instance where President Trump used the promise of Tomahawks as leverage during talks with Zelensky. The core argument is that the military benefit (forcing Russia to fight without supplies) outweighs the political risk of escalation, as Russia is already in a weak economic position.