# Stocks Trump Bitcoin Fed Source: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IOYUvisW79Q Recap page: https://rapidrecap.app/video/IOYUvisW79Q Generated: 2025-12-19T17:16:17.031+00:00 --- ## Quick Overview Stocks, particularly Oracle, experienced a significant upward movement driven by the announcement of a definitive agreement for the TikTok deal, which the speaker suggests functions primarily to stop the stock's bleeding and provide liquidity relief, although the deal is still subject to Chinese regulatory approval. **Key Points:** - Oracle stock shot up, securing a test of 617 on the Qs after high initial volume suggested strong bullish pressure following the TikTok deal news. - The speaker contends that the enthusiasm, especially for stocks like Coreweave up 15%, may represent trader momentum providing an exit opportunity for institutions looking to cash out before the January 9th jobs report. - A German pension fund reported a billion dollars in losses from private credit investments and questioned the integrity of credit ratings, noting extreme concentration at the BBB minus level. - The speaker expresses skepticism about the TikTok deal structure, noting reports suggesting it looks more like a franchise agreement than a true divestiture, which China's position remains unclear on. - Fed Governor Williams stated he has 'no sense of urgency to act further on monetary policy' because current cuts position them well, pending further inflation reduction. - The University of Michigan consumer sentiment survey showed current conditions hitting a record low, worse than the global financial crisis. - The speaker analyzed Celestica (CLS), noting it generates positive operating cash flow ($89 million in the last quarter) but trades at 48 times earnings with relatively low margins (around 13% gross margin). **Context:** The live stream focused heavily on immediate market action, specifically the surge in Oracle stock following news that a definitive agreement for the TikTok sale to a US consortium led by Oracle had been signed, subject to Chinese approval. Concurrently, the speaker discussed underlying structural concerns related to the massive private credit market, referencing a German pension fund's billion-dollar losses due to poor private market ratings, and highlighted mixed economic data including record-low consumer sentiment. ## Detailed Analysis The market rallied strongly, fueled by the perceived success of the Oracle/TikTok deal, which the speaker views as a strategic move by Trump to halt Oracle's stock decline and inject confidence, especially given private credit fears where Oracle's lender, Blue Owl, was reportedly involved in a bailout. The speaker notes that the market's reaction, exemplified by the Qs hitting 617, confirmed their morning analysis based on high initial trading volume. However, skepticism remains high regarding the deal's finalization as China's position is ambiguous; reports suggest the structure might be a 'franchise agreement' rather than a true divestiture, and ongoing US-China tensions, such as the massive US-Taiwan arms sale, could jeopardize approval. Furthermore, underlying economic fragility is suggested by the University of Michigan survey registering record-low consumer sentiment and historical trends in unemployment data pointing towards potential recessionary conditions, leading the speaker to warn that current stock momentum might just be a temporary trader-driven exit opportunity before the end of the year or the January 9th jobs report. ### Oracle & TikTok Deal Dynamics - Oracle stock surged based on the definitive agreement for the TikTok deal, which the speaker suggests is a move to 'stop the bleeding at Oracle stock' and prop up hardware/semis - The deal requires Chinese approval, which remains uncertain as Chinese officials reiterate their 'clear and consistent' position and express concern over the complex algorithm splitting arrangement. ### Private Credit Concerns - A German pension fund suffered $1 billion in losses in private credit, criticizing rating agencies for concentrating assets at the BBB minus level, indicating systemic risk similar to 2008 lessons being ignored - The speaker links Oracle's stock pressure to fears in the private credit space, equating its size to losing a 'too big to fail JP Morgan' ($4 trillion market). ### Federal Reserve Stance - Fed Governor Williams adopted a hawkish stance, stating there is 'no sense of urgency to act further on monetary policy' and that cuts have positioned them well, pending inflation confirmation. ### Economic Indicators - U.S. consumer sentiment from the University of Michigan hit a record low in current conditions, worse than the global financial crisis - The trend in 27 weeks unemployed consistently preceded recessions, although the recession often followed the peak in the unemployment metric. ### Stock Analysis & Trading - The strong morning performance on Oracle and Qs validated the morning alpha report's observation regarding massive initial volume - The speaker advises caution on buying high-momentum stocks like Coreweave on up days due to 'trader momentum' exiting by day's end. ### Company Deep Dive (Celestica - CLS) - Celestica generates positive operating cash flow ($89 million) and shows increasing gross margins but trades at a high P/E of 48 times earnings with relatively low margins (13% gross) - The stock experienced massive momentum, tripling in value from $83 to $284, with a PEG ratio of 1.37.