GPT-5 is 58% AGI

Quick Overview

The consensus among AI researchers regarding AGI is highly fragmented, with the Center for AI Safety quantifying GPT-4 at 27% and GPT-5 at 58% toward their proposed measurable AGI framework, highlighting significant remaining gaps in areas like long-term memory and auditory processing.

Key Points: A collaborative paper from the Center for AI Safety proposes a quantifiable framework to define AGI based on cognitive abilities, moving beyond vague buzzwords. The proposed AGI framework dissects intelligence into ten core cognitive domains, including General Knowledge, Reasoning, and various memory functions. Using this framework, GPT-4 scored 27% toward AGI, while GPT-5 is projected to score 58%, showing rapid progress but a substantial gap remains. Elon Musk offered a similar definition where AGI is capable of doing anything a human with a computer can do, but not smarter than all humans and computers combined, estimating 3 to 5 years away. The research suggests current models perform strongly in knowledge and language but show critical deficits in foundational cognitive machinery, particularly long-term memory. The scope of the AGI measurement is strictly cognitive ability, explicitly excluding motor control or economic output, meaning high scores do not guarantee business value. The authors warn against hype, noting that many current models exhibit cognitive flaws like hallucinations and limited inductive reasoning.

Context: This video discusses the ongoing debate and lack of consensus surrounding the definition of Artificial General Intelligence (AGI), focusing specifically on a recent paper titled "A Definition of AGI" by researchers affiliated with the Center for AI Safety. The discussion references quantitative benchmarks provided in the paper, contrasting them with earlier, less precise definitions offered by figures like Elon Musk.

Detailed Analysis

The video analyzes the challenges in defining AGI, centering on a new paper from the Center for AI Safety which introduces a quantifiable framework based on ten core cognitive domains derived from the Cattell-Horn-Carroll theory of human cognition. This framework allows researchers to track progress numerically, showing GPT-4 scored 27% and GPT-5 is projected to score 58% toward AGI. The speaker notes that the biggest remaining gap is in long-term memory and auditory processing, where current models score very low. Elon Musk's earlier definition, which focused on models being able to perform any human task but not smarter than all humans combined (estimating 3-5 years away), is contrasted with this new framework, which aims to move beyond economic utility and focus purely on cognitive ability, explicitly excluding motor control or economic output from the score. The paper highlights that while large models excel in knowledge and language, they suffer from foundational deficits like hallucinations and poor long-term memory, suggesting that progress will stall without addressing these core weaknesses.