# Is The War in Gaza Really Over? - 5CAST (#13) Ft. James Gelvin Source: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GgBchLRfNyU Recap page: https://rapidrecap.app/video/GgBchLRfNyU Generated: 2025-10-23T16:33:41.834+00:00 --- ## Quick Overview The expert concludes that the war in Gaza is not over, as Hamas is deeply entrenched and unlikely to disarm, meaning a two-state solution is improbable under current conditions, especially given the ongoing internal Palestinian political conflict between Hamas and Fatah, and the failure of past peace efforts like the Oslo Accords to fundamentally change the situation. **Key Points:** - The expert asserts the war in Gaza is not over because Hamas is deeply entrenched and unlikely to disarm, despite international pressure. - The expert doubts a two-state solution is possible because it would require Hamas to give up power and weapons, which is unlikely given their current strength and ideology. - The political situation in the Palestinian territories is complicated by internal conflict, with Hamas controlling Gaza and the PA controlling parts of the West Bank, leading to a fragmented political landscape. - Past Israeli strategies, like expanding settlements in the West Bank and military operations, have historically failed to eradicate Palestinian national aspirations. - The expert cites the 1987 First Intifada and the 1930s Arab revolts as historical examples of Palestinian resistance against occupation and displacement. - The expert notes that the current Palestinian Authority is highly corrupt and unpopular, making it an unlikely partner for a stable peace deal. - The ongoing political and military conflict demonstrates that neither side is currently in a position to force a resolution favorable to them. ![Screenshot at 37:37: The expert drawing a parallel between current Israeli actions and the 1987 First Intifada, noting that Israeli military actions often spur resistance rather than quell it.](https://ss.rapidrecap.app/screens/GgBchLRfNyU/00-37-37.png) **Context:** The video features an interview between a journalist and James Gelvin, an expert, discussing the current state of the conflict in Gaza and the broader Israeli-Palestinian conflict. The discussion centers on the near-term prospects for peace, specifically referencing the difficulty of achieving a two-state solution given Hamas's control in Gaza, the historical context of Palestinian resistance, and the internal political fragmentation between Hamas and the Palestinian Authority (PA). ## Detailed Analysis The expert, James Gelvin, argues that the war in Gaza is far from over because Hamas is deeply entrenched and unlikely to disarm, despite international calls for a ceasefire or peace plan. Gelvin outlines three levels of analysis regarding the conflict: the immediate hostage/ceasefire level, the political/territorial control level (Hamas in Gaza vs. PA in the West Bank), and the long-term historical/ideological context. He dismisses the Trump peace plan as unlikely to succeed because it relies on Hamas willingly disarming, which he views as impossible given their ideological commitment and their recent electoral victory in 2007. Furthermore, he notes that the PA is highly corrupt and unpopular, making it an unreliable partner for any internationally backed administrative solution in Gaza. Gelvin cites historical precedents like the 1987 First Intifada and the 1930s revolts to show that Israeli military pressure often strengthens, rather than weakens, Palestinian national sentiment. He concludes that the two-state solution framework is broken because neither side is currently capable of imposing a resolution on the other, leading to continued cycles of violence and political stagnation. ### Assessment of the War's Status - The war is not over because Hamas is too deeply entrenched and unlikely to disarm; a two-state solution under current terms is improbable. ### Internal Palestinian Politics - Hamas and the PA are in a state of political divorce, with Hamas maintaining control in Gaza, exemplified by their armed rallies and executions of alleged collaborators. ### Israeli Strategy and Failures - Israeli military actions (like expanding settlements in the West Bank, which divides Palestinian territory) and military operations often backfire, strengthening Palestinian resistance rather than achieving desired outcomes. ### Historical Context of Resistance - The expert draws parallels to the 1987 First Intifada and the 1930s revolts, noting that oppression historically fuels, rather than quashes, nationalist sentiment. ### Role of External Actors - The US (under Trump and Biden) has pushed peace plans, but these fail because they ignore Hamas's ideology and the weakness/corruption of the PA leadership. ### Future Outlook - The situation is deadlocked; neither side can impose a resolution, leading to continued, volatile conflict spirals. ![Screenshot at 00:17: Split screen showing hostage release site and Israeli crowds, illustrating the immediate, emotional context of the conflict.](https://ss.rapidrecap.app/screens/GgBchLRfNyU/00-00-17.png) ![Screenshot at 00:38: Map illustrating the three phases of the proposed Gaza withdrawal/control plan, showing delineated zones.](https://ss.rapidrecap.app/screens/GgBchLRfNyU/00-00-38.png) ![Screenshot at 00:58: Image of armed Hamas militants standing in formation, symbolizing the group's continued military capacity despite ceasefires.](https://ss.rapidrecap.app/screens/GgBchLRfNyU/00-00-58.png) ![Screenshot at 01:24: News graphic reporting Hamas carrying out public executions shortly after signing a peace treaty, highlighting internal repression.](https://ss.rapidrecap.app/screens/GgBchLRfNyU/00-01-24.png) ![Screenshot at 02:22: Footage showing Hamas forces clashing with rivals amidst destroyed buildings, illustrating internal conflict within Gaza.](https://ss.rapidrecap.app/screens/GgBchLRfNyU/00-02-22.png) ![Screenshot at 03:15: Donald Trump warning Hamas to disarm or face disarmament, reflecting the US stance on the conflict.](https://ss.rapidrecap.app/screens/GgBchLRfNyU/00-03-15.png) ![Screenshot at 04:27: Netanyahu speaking at the UN, rejecting Palestinian statehood and affirming Israeli control over key territories.](https://ss.rapidrecap.app/screens/GgBchLRfNyU/00-04-27.png) ![Screenshot at 04:44: Netanyahu and Trump standing together, symbolizing past US-Israel alignment on regional policy.](https://ss.rapidrecap.app/screens/GgBchLRfNyU/00-04-44.png) ![Screenshot at 05:58: Graphic showing multiple news sources covering the same story, illustrating the media's focus on the conflict.](https://ss.rapidrecap.app/screens/GgBchLRfNyU/00-05-58.png) ![Screenshot at 11:11: Footage of Indonesian troops preparing for a possible peacekeeping mission in Gaza, referencing international involvement attempts.](https://ss.rapidrecap.app/screens/GgBchLRfNyU/00-11-11.png)