# Keir Starmer Refuses To Rule Out Rise To Income Tax

Source: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=G9RhlnOb2LU
Recap page: https://rapidrecap.app/video/G9RhlnOb2LU
Generated: 2025-10-29T21:33:48.317+00:00

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## Quick Overview

Labour leader Keir Starmer refused to rule out raising income tax, National Insurance, or VAT, leading to criticism from Conservative Leader Kemi Badenoch who pointed out Labour's previous manifesto pledge not to increase these taxes, highlighting the fiscal hole left by the OBR's downward growth projections.

**Key Points:**
- Kemi Badenoch challenged Keir Starmer for refusing to rule out raising Income Tax, National Insurance, or VAT, despite Labour's manifesto pledge not to increase them.
- The challenge arose after the Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR) projected lower growth this year, creating a fiscal black hole estimated between £35 billion and £40 billion.
- Badenoch noted that Starmer's reply to her question on July 9th was a single word, 'Yes,' before sitting down with a smug grin.
- Faiza Shaheen noted that the economic situation means Labour will likely have to break their manifesto promises regarding taxes on income and potentially capital gains.
- Shaheen calculated that if Labour raised 2p on income tax for those earning over £10 million, it would raise about £24 billion a year, which is insufficient to cover the fiscal gap.
- Both interviewees agreed that the current economic climate and the need to fund public services mean Labour faces difficult choices regarding tax policy.

![Screenshot at 00:11: Conservative Leader Kemi Badenoch MP confronts Prime Minister Sir Keir Starmer during PMQs, specifically challenging him over Labour's commitment to not raising income tax, National Insurance, or VAT.](https://ss.rapidrecap.app/screens/G9RhlnOb2LU/00-00-11.png)

**Context:** This segment features a discussion between Michael Walker and economist Faiza Shaheen analyzing recent political exchanges in the UK Parliament, specifically focusing on Labour leader Keir Starmer's perceived refusal to commit to his party's manifesto pledges regarding taxation in the face of new, less optimistic economic forecasts from the OBR.

## Detailed Analysis

The video primarily covers the fallout from Prime Minister's Questions (PMQs) where Conservative Leader Kemi Badenoch challenged Keir Starmer for refusing to rule out tax rises on income tax, National Insurance, or VAT, directly contrasting this with Labour's manifesto pledge not to increase these taxes. This tension is framed by the recent OBR forecast predicting lower growth, creating a fiscal gap estimated between £35 billion and £40 billion. Faiza Shaheen, speaking with Michael Walker, confirms that Labour is effectively cornered, suggesting they will likely have to break their pledges, noting that even a significant income tax increase on the very wealthy (e.g., 2p on income over £10 million) would only yield around £24 billion annually, insufficient to cover the gap. Shaheen further notes that the wealth tax proposals floated by some on the left, like taxing assets or capital gains, are also politically risky and might disincentivize investment, while the current government is already struggling to fund public services without causing public backlash.

### PMQs Confrontation

- Kemi Badenoch challenges Starmer on breaking manifesto pledges regarding Income Tax, NI, and VAT
- Starmer refuses to rule out rises
- Badenoch notes Starmer sat down with a 'smug grin' (00:12-01:23)

### Economic Reality Check

- OBR forecasts lower growth, creating a fiscal black hole of £35-40 billion
- This forces difficult choices for Labour (01:24-01:41)

### Tax Policy Analysis

- Shaheen notes Labour's predicament regarding manifesto promises on income tax and wealth tax
- Taxing high earners (2p over £10m) raises only £24 billion, insufficient to cover the hole (01:47-02:04)

### Political Risk Assessment

- Shaheen suggests Labour is being heavily lobbied not to raise taxes on wealth
- Raising taxes on the richest is politically viable but insufficient; raising taxes on middle earners risks backlash (02:28-03:05, 05:03-05:27)

### Conclusion on Labour's Position

- Shaheen believes Labour will likely break their promises due to economic necessity, leading to political fallout, especially concerning public services funding (03:07-04:30, 04:52-05:14)

![Screenshot at 00:01: Michael Walker introduces the topic of Keir Starmer refusing to rule out tax increases.](https://ss.rapidrecap.app/screens/G9RhlnOb2LU/00-00-01.png)
![Screenshot at 00:11: Kemi Badenoch addresses the House during PMQs, setting up her challenge to the Prime Minister.](https://ss.rapidrecap.app/screens/G9RhlnOb2LU/00-00-11.png)
![Screenshot at 00:26: Sir Keir Starmer addresses the chamber during PMQs.](https://ss.rapidrecap.app/screens/G9RhlnOb2LU/00-00-26.png)
![Screenshot at 00:33: Kemi Badenoch quotes Labour's manifesto pledge not to increase income tax, NI, or VAT.](https://ss.rapidrecap.app/screens/G9RhlnOb2LU/00-00-33.png)
![Screenshot at 00:48: Sir Keir Starmer mentions the upcoming Budget on November 26th and promises to lay out Labour's plans.](https://ss.rapidrecap.app/screens/G9RhlnOb2LU/00-00-48.png)
![Screenshot at 01:19: Badenoch highlights Starmer's single-word reply, 'Yes,' followed by a smug reaction from her side.](https://ss.rapidrecap.app/screens/G9RhlnOb2LU/00-01-19.png)
![Screenshot at 01:51: Split screen showing Michael Walker interviewing economist Faiza Shaheen about the implications of Starmer's refusal.](https://ss.rapidrecap.app/screens/G9RhlnOb2LU/00-01-51.png)
![Screenshot at 02:30: Faiza Shaheen discusses how the current situation forces Labour into a corner regarding their tax pledges.](https://ss.rapidrecap.app/screens/G9RhlnOb2LU/00-02-30.png)
![Screenshot at 04:49: Split screen view of Walker pressing Shaheen on the political fallout of breaking manifesto pledges.](https://ss.rapidrecap.app/screens/G9RhlnOb2LU/00-04-49.png)
![Screenshot at 07:38: Faiza Shaheen details the insufficient revenue expected from taxing only the wealthiest individuals.](https://ss.rapidrecap.app/screens/G9RhlnOb2LU/00-07-38.png)