# The end of OpenAI, and other 2026 predictions | The Vergecast Source: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CRskF5EMqTw Recap page: https://rapidrecap.app/video/CRskF5EMqTw Generated: 2025-12-14T14:33:39.721+00:00 --- ## Quick Overview The Vergecast hosts David Pierce, Joanna Stern, and Neil Patel made their 2026 predictions after reviewing their largely incorrect 2025 predictions, with Joanna predicting an Apple foldable launch that faces media backlash over price, David predicting a small comeback for EV sales, Neil predicting backlash forcing social platforms to label AI slop, and the spiciest takes including Neil predicting OpenAI fails and Joanna predicting the updated Siri becomes amazingly good, leading to people falling in love with it. **Key Points:** - Joanna Stern's mild 2026 prediction is that Apple releases a foldable phone, leading to media and fan freakout over its high price, likely between $1799 and $1999, but it will be an early adopter hit with no clear use case. - David Pierce predicts a small comeback for electric vehicle (EV) sales in 2026, arguing that the market overreacted to the sales cratering after everyone rushed to buy before the EV tax credit expired, and cheaper cars like a $29,000 Bolt will help. - Neil Patel's medium prediction is that backlash against AI slop on social platforms will force platforms like Instagram and YouTube to label AI-generated content and allow users to filter it out. - David Pierce's mild prediction is that GTA 6 will be a monstrous economic and cultural hit, becoming a cultural touchstone like Fortnite, which will cause everyone on Earth to disappear into it for a month. - Neil Patel's spiciest take is that OpenAI fails in its current configuration, citing a lack of articulated product strategy, running up costs on every query, and the age of scaling being over according to co-founder Ilia Sutskever. - Joanna Stern's spiciest take is that the updated Siri becomes amazing and so good that people start falling in love with it, potentially leading to romantic relationships and sex with the voice assistant. - The hosts agreed that Matter technology is now default for supported smart home devices, meaning David Pierce was wrong in predicting people would give up on it in 2025. **Context:** The Vergecast episode featured hosts David Pierce, Joanna Stern, and Neil Patel engaging in their annual tradition of making and reviewing predictions, specifically looking ahead to 2026 after deeming their 2025 predictions largely a wash due to unexpected personal events like births and the general unpredictability of the tech year. They categorized their forecasts into mild, medium, and spicy levels, reviewing past misses and hits regarding topics like Apple hardware, TikTok ownership, AI gadgets, and smart home standards. ## Detailed Analysis The hosts reviewed their 2025 predictions, noting most were incorrect, then launched into 2026 forecasts. For mild predictions, Joanna expects the Apple foldable to launch to sticker shock but be an early adopter success lacking a clear purpose, while David predicts a rebound in EV sales due to new lower-priced models and the market resetting after the tax credit rush. David also believes GTA 6 will be a massive cultural event. Medium predictions centered on social media and autonomous vehicles; Neil anticipates a creator-driven pushback against AI-generated 'slop' forcing labeling, and Joanna predicts a major, serious incident involving a Waymo vehicle will force an industry-wide debate on liability, even though the safety data generally supports autonomous vehicles. The spiciest takes were polarized: Neil predicts OpenAI will fail due to internal struggles and technology limitations, while Joanna predicts the drastically improved Siri will become so beloved it sparks romantic attachments, potentially forcing Apple to rebrand the assistant away from the 'Siri' name. ### Review of 2025 Predictions - Joanna's prediction of continued social account posting was correct; her Vision Pro take was true by default as Apple 'did nothing'; Neil's Alexa plus prediction was rated 'fine' but not a huge success; David correctly predicted the near-death of cable TV but whiffed on an AI gadget becoming a hit; all agreed Matter adoption succeeded, proving David wrong about giving up on it. ### Mild 2026 Predictions - Apple releases a foldable phone met with price backlash but deemed an early adopter hit; EV sales see a small comeback driven by sub-$30k models; GTA 6 becomes an immediate cultural and economic event, like the 'Skippidity toilet' of 2026. ### Medium 2026 Predictions - Backlash to AI slop forces social platforms to label or filter AI content, driven by creator and audience demand; Waymo faces a serious incident (death or major accident) that ignites a fierce debate on AV liability, despite existing safety data favoring robotaxis over human drivers. ### Analysis of Creator Platforms - Neil suggested that the flood of AI content will spur a new, human-centric creator platform, though David noted the massive barrier to entry due to the billions required for user acquisition, contrasting with existing giants like YouTube. ### Spicy 2026 Predictions - Neil predicts OpenAI fails, becoming fully absorbed by Microsoft due to product strategy issues and the limits of LLMs for AGI; Joanna predicts the updated Siri becomes so conversationally advanced that people fall in romantic love with it, potentially leading to sexual interactions, forcing Apple to rebrand it. ### Apple's Future Trajectory - David offers a counter-spicy take that 2026 will be Apple's worst year since the 90s due to executive turnover and a perceived lack of interesting new product ideas, contrasting with Joanna's prediction focused specifically on a single new hardware release.