# The Iran War, Oil, and Stock Market FLIP [March 10] Source: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AKG_8TmwhsU Recap page: https://rapidrecap.app/video/AKG_8TmwhsU Generated: 2026-03-10T16:04:59.506+00:00 --- ## Quick Overview The market sentiment on March 10th indicated significant fear (CNN Fear & Greed Index at 31), despite geopolitical escalations involving Iran, which led to predictions of oil prices spiking to $150/barrel, and positive US economic data like better-than-expected ADP jobs numbers, while Microsoft's valuation relative to the S&P 500 sits near a five-year low. **Key Points:** - Iran's actions, including closing the Strait of Hormuz and involvement with ten other countries targeting oil infrastructure, suggest the conflict escalation is the closest to a World War III scenario in decades. - Oil prices were predicted by some analysts to rise sharply to $150 per barrel, a level considered recessionary by Goldman Sachs. - The CNN Fear & Greed Index stood at 31 (Fear) on March 10th, rebounding from previous weeks but still indicating fear, contrasting with optimism following Trump's comments about ending the war sooner. - US economic data showed positive signs, with ADP jobs additions coming in at 15,000 higher than expected for the week, suggesting the labor market is recovering from a hot January. - Microsoft's valuation relative to the S&P 500 is near a five-year low, trading around 20x GAAP P/E on 27, suggesting it is cheap relative to the broader market. - Rabobank's worst-case scenario for 2026 projects CPI inflation at 5.8% (more than double the 2.8% pre-war baseline) and GDP growth at only 1.2%. ![Screenshot at 01:35: A chart titled "Open Interest in Call Options on Brent Crude Oil Futures" visually demonstrates that the options market had low anticipation for a sharp rise over $120, as shown by the minimal yellow bars \(low anticipation\) compared to the high volume of red bars \(standard call interest\) at lower strike prices.](https://ss.rapidrecap.app/screens/AKG_8TmwhsU/00-01-35.jpg) **Context:** This video provides a market update for March 10th, covering geopolitical tensions, oil market projections, recent US economic indicators, and specific stock valuation analysis, particularly focusing on Microsoft. The speaker analyzes how international events, such as Iran's actions and potential military escalations, influence commodity prices like oil, while also contrasting this with domestic economic performance and corporate valuations. ## Detailed Analysis The speaker opens by noting that Iran has effectively closed the Strait of Hormuz, involving ten other countries in targeting oil infrastructure, a situation described as the closest to a World War III scenario since the Cold War. This geopolitical tension is expected to drive oil prices up, with predictions suggesting a rise to $150 per barrel, a level Goldman Sachs deems recessionary. The speaker notes that the CNN Fear & Greed Index is currently at 31 (Fear), showing a rebound from prior weeks but still within the fear zone, despite optimism from figures like Donald Trump regarding a quicker end to conflicts. Economically, the US data provided a positive counterpoint; ADP jobs data for the week showed 15,000 more jobs added than expected, suggesting a labor market recovery following a hot January. The speaker then shifts to stock analysis, highlighting that Microsoft's valuation relative to the S&P 500 is near a five-year low, trading around 20x GAAP P/E on 27, which implies it is undervalued compared to the market. Furthermore, the speaker references Rabobank's worst-case scenario projecting high CPI inflation (5.8% in 2026) alongside very low GDP growth (1.2% in 2026), but notes that the market might have already priced in some of these downturns. Finally, the speaker transitions to promoting his educational offerings, including courses on real estate, stock analysis, and productivity, emphasizing that these resources are available to members. ### Geopolitical Oil Market Update - Iran effectively closed the Strait of Hormuz, involving ten countries in targeting oil infrastructure - Oil prices potentially spiking to $150/barrel, considered recessionary by Goldman Sachs - Iran is not seeking a ceasefire, suggesting conflict continuation. ### Economic Indicators - CNN Fear & Greed Index sits at 31 (Fear), rebounding from previous lows - US ADP jobs data beat expectations (15,000 more than expected), suggesting labor market recovery after a hot January. ### Stock Valuation Analysis (MSFT) - Microsoft's valuation relative to the S&P 500 is near a 5-year low, trading around 20x GAAP P/E on 27 - This valuation suggests MSFT is cheap relative to the market, unlike American Express whose valuation is deemed too extreme. ### Rabobank Worst-Case Scenario - Projects 2026 CPI inflation at 5.8% (more than double the 2.8% baseline) and GDP growth at only 1.2% (near-stall territory) - Despite this, the speaker hopes for a rebound in the job market and doesn't expect an immediate recession. ### Promotional Content - Speaker promotes membership access to courses like 'The Reinvest Course' (focusing on wealth building and tax strategies), 'Stocks & the Psychology of Money', 'Real Estate Investing: From $0 to Millionaire & Beyond', 'Real Estate Agent Sales & Negotiations', 'DIY Property Management and Rental Renovations', 'Youtube & Social Media Guide', and 'Productivity & AI: Getting more Sh*t Done FASTER', with a coupon code 'TooBigToRig' expiring March 18th. ![Screenshot at 00:00: The speaker begins the daily update, seated at a desk with a glowing keyboard and a distinctive green and gold World of Warcraft weapon replica mounted on the wall behind him.](https://ss.rapidrecap.app/screens/AKG_8TmwhsU/00-00-00.jpg) ![Screenshot at 01:35: A bar chart displaying "Open Interest in Call Options on Brent Crude Oil Futures," clearly showing concentrated call interest \(red bars\) at strike prices between $60 and $100, with very low interest \(yellow bars\) above $120.](https://ss.rapidrecap.app/screens/AKG_8TmwhsU/00-01-35.jpg) ![Screenshot at 07:54: The CNN Fear & Greed Index gauge shows a reading of 31, firmly in the 'Fear' zone, with historical data points indicating prior dips into 'Extreme Fear'.](https://ss.rapidrecap.app/screens/AKG_8TmwhsU/00-07-54.jpg) ![Screenshot at 10:00: A line graph illustrates the "MSFT Valuation" showing the relative ratio of MSFT vs S&P 500, highlighting a recent low near the 2023 'ChatGPT launch' mark, indicating a valuation low relative to the market.](https://ss.rapidrecap.app/screens/AKG_8TmwhsU/00-10-00.jpg)