Defence Expert The Old World Order Is DEAD

Quick Overview

Europe must accept the premise that it needs to take the lead for its own defense, working from the reality of a collapsing status quo where the United States is no longer a reliable security provider, by negotiating a phased transition where Europe takes on the defense burden over time rather than resorting to economically nuclear retaliation or relying on a predatory superpower.

Key Points: Donald Trump's threats, exemplified by comments about NATO troops in Afghanistan, confirm that Europe can no longer rely on the US for protection, necessitating a shift in defense posture. Professor Patrick Porter argues Europe must work from the world as it is, accepting that the status quo sustained by a benign US security provider is collapsing, and Europe must take the lead for its own defense. The recommended path is a 'big bargain'—exchanging time, provided by the US reluctantly, for Europe to gradually assume defense responsibilities in an orderly, phased manner to create a 'less American Europe,' not a post-American one. Aggressive countermeasures against the US, such as economic sanctions or selling US Treasuries, are possible but risk provoking equal or greater retaliation, potentially overwhelming Europe while it manages domestic issues and contains Russia. The UK's military dependence, particularly its Trident system relying on American logistical support, stems from a historical calculation trading sovereignty for access to cutting-edge US technology and transatlantic influence. A multipolar world is historically more prone to large wars due to unstable pecking orders, making the relative stability of the previous hierarchy preferable, despite US hubris. Aligning with China as a hedge against US overreach is risky because China employs a 'tributary hierarchical approach,' demanding silence on criticism in exchange for favorable trade relations.

Context: The discussion centers on the implications of Donald Trump's transactional and threatening foreign policy, specifically concerning US commitments to European defense, highlighted by recent tensions over Greenland. Defense expert Patrick Porter, Professor of International Security at the University of Birmingham and author of 'How to Survive a Hostile World,' analyzes what Europe, and specifically the UK, should do now that the established post-WWII security hierarchy led by the United States is collapsing and the US is perceived as increasingly predatory.