# We’re 96% to AGI—Google’s New “Nested Brain” Model Explains Why Source: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7zC8oD5dps4 Recap page: https://rapidrecap.app/video/7zC8oD5dps4 Generated: 2025-12-03T15:04:54.685+00:00 --- ## Quick Overview The video discusses Alan's conservative countdown to AGI currently standing at 96%, followed by a review of recent AI advancements, including Google DeepMind's self-modifying language model architecture (TiDAR) that blends diffusion and autoregression, impressive humanoid robot agility demonstrations from China, and a New York law regulating personalized AI pricing, all of which suggest the rapid acceleration toward AGI and ASI. **Key Points:** - Alan's conservative countdown to AGI increased to 96%, up from the 60s/low 70s previously seen, indicating accelerating progress. - Google DeepMind introduced TiDAR, a sequence-hybrid architecture combining diffusion models (for parallel generation) and autoregressive models (for quality), which they claim performs better than large language models like GPT-6. - A Chinese humanoid robot, MagicBot Z1, demonstrated advanced agility by side-flipping to dodge an arrow and performing martial arts-style kicks. - A New York law targets personalized/surveillance pricing, requiring retailers using AI to disclose that prices are set by an algorithm using personal data. - The speaker notes that the complexity of AI models, like the consciousness theory suggesting consciousness is fundamental rather than a byproduct of the brain, is growing rapidly. - The video also shows various autonomous cleaning robots in a competition in Shenzhen, China, highlighting practical service robot applications. ![Screenshot at 00:00: The video opens by displaying Alan's conservative countdown to AGI gauge, which is currently pegged at 96%.](https://ss.rapidrecap.app/screens/7zC8oD5dps4/00-00-00.png) **Context:** The video presents a rapid-fire review of several recent developments across artificial intelligence, robotics, and technology policy, framed around the speaker's ongoing 'conservative countdown to AGI' metric, which suggests the timeline for achieving Artificial General Intelligence is rapidly approaching. Key topics include new AI model architectures, advanced robotics, and emerging regulatory challenges. ## Detailed Analysis The video begins by showing Alan's conservative AGI countdown gauge at 96%, noting an increase from previous levels. The speaker then reviews several recent developments. First, he highlights a paper from Google DeepMind introducing TiDAR: Think in Diffusion, Talk in Autoregression, a hybrid architecture that combines the parallel generation strength of diffusion models with the quality output of autoregressive models, allowing it to draft tokens sequentially while thinking in diffusion, which is claimed to achieve high throughput and quality. Next, the speaker shows footage of a Chinese humanoid robot, MagicBot Z1, demonstrating impressive agility by side-flipping to dodge an arrow and executing high kicks, noting its advanced motor control. The discussion shifts to policy, referencing a new New York law requiring retailers to disclose when personalized pricing (surveillance pricing) is set by an AI algorithm using personal data. The speaker then reviews a theoretical physics paper suggesting consciousness is the foundation of reality, rather than a byproduct of the brain, which he finds interesting but potentially complex. Finally, the speaker shows clips from a sanitation robot competition in Shenzhen, China, demonstrating various autonomous cleaning bots and noting that while these are practical applications, the rapid advancements in AI (like the self-modifying architecture of TiDAR) suggest an accelerating timeline toward AGI, perhaps even earlier than expected. ### AGI Countdown Status - The conservative countdown to AGI has reached 96% - The speaker notes this accelerating progress - This is up from previous lower estimates. ### TiDAR AI Model - NVIDIA paper introduces TiDAR, a hybrid architecture combining diffusion (for parallel drafting) and autoregression (for quality) - It aims to overcome limitations of purely autoregressive models by drafting tokens sequentially - The model performs well on general intelligence tests. ### Advanced Robotics - Footage shows a Chinese humanoid robot (MagicBot Z1) performing complex maneuvers like side-flips to dodge an arrow and martial arts kicks - The video also shows the robot dancing, highlighting balance and fluid movement. ### AI Regulation News - A New York law requires disclosure when personalized pricing or surveillance pricing is used by AI utilizing personal data - The required disclosure is: "THIS PRICE WAS SET BY AN ALGORITHM USING YOUR PERSONAL DATA." ### Consciousness Theory - The video briefly covers a paper suggesting consciousness is fundamental, not a byproduct of the brain, potentially using quantum physics principles - The speaker notes this theory is ambitious and suggests consciousness underlies reality, space, and time. ### Service Robotics - Footage from a sanitation robot competition in Shenzhen, China, displays various autonomous street cleaning and trash handling robots - The speaker views this as a perfect, non-controversial use case for robotics. ![Screenshot at 00:00: Alan's conservative countdown to AGI gauge showing 96%.](https://ss.rapidrecap.app/screens/7zC8oD5dps4/00-00-00.png) ![Screenshot at 00:21: Title slide for GeoVista: Web-Augmented Agentic Visual Reasoning for Geolocalization.](https://ss.rapidrecap.app/screens/7zC8oD5dps4/00-00-21.png) ![Screenshot at 01:44: New York Times article headline regarding AI regulation and personalized pricing.](https://ss.rapidrecap.app/screens/7zC8oD5dps4/00-01-44.png) ![Screenshot at 02:17: Title slide for an article about an AI model trained on prison phone calls to detect planned crimes.](https://ss.rapidrecap.app/screens/7zC8oD5dps4/00-02-17.png) ![Screenshot at 03:51: The speaker references the paper on consciousness as the foundation of reality.](https://ss.rapidrecap.app/screens/7zC8oD5dps4/00-03-51.png)