Iran Protests Explained: Trump, Israel, and What’s at Stake

Quick Overview

Vali Nasr argues that the US policy under Trump, focusing on maximizing pressure on Iran through sanctions and threatening military action, is unlikely to succeed in forcing regime change or a favorable deal, because the Iranian regime views the protests as an existential threat that justifies brutal suppression, and the political calculus within Iran prioritizes regime survival over any Western demands, as evidenced by the regime's ability to survive severe sanctions and opposition over decades.

Key Points: The Iranian regime views the ongoing protests as an existential threat, justifying extreme suppression, including killings, to maintain control. Reports indicated hundreds of deaths and thousands injured among protesters, with some human rights groups estimating a minimum of 5,000 casualties. The Iranian government's narrative, amplified by state media, frames protesters as foreign-backed agents attempting to instigate civil war or regime change. Vali Nasr suggests that the Supreme Leader, Ayatollah Khamenei, is more of a balancer than a hardliner, but the hardliners' strategy involves using repression and external conflict to shore up domestic support. US policy under Trump, relying on maximum pressure and military threats (like deploying a 'massive Armada'), is seen as counterproductive because it provides the regime with a pretext for escalation and solidifies the hardline stance against negotiation. The Iranian regime has historically shown resilience against sanctions and internal dissent, surviving the 1979 revolution and subsequent internal/external pressures. The fundamental objective for the Iranian leadership is regime survival, making them unlikely to concede to demands like ending the nuclear program or changing regional behavior.

Context: The discussion features Iranian-American scholar Vali Nasr being interviewed by Mehdi Hasan on 'Mehdi Unfiltered.' The context is the ongoing, widespread protests within the Islamic Republic of Iran, sparked by clear outrage over rampant inflation and the oppressive nature of the clerical government. The conversation centers on analyzing the regime's brutal response to these protests and speculating on the effectiveness and implications of US policy, particularly under the Trump administration, in dealing with the crisis.