# Is This What Economists Dream of Being? | Mark Corner | TEDxKULeuvenBrussels

Source: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3RaQ2hVxlj4
Recap page: https://rapidrecap.app/video/3RaQ2hVxlj4
Generated: 2025-12-03T18:34:39.771+00:00

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## Quick Overview

The speaker argues that economists, unlike hard scientists like Newton or Halley, often fail to predict major economic crises, suggesting that the reliance on mathematical models creates a complacent certainty that misses the inherent randomness and uncertainty in human behavior, which a historian might better grasp.

**Key Points:**
- The speaker contrasts economists with hard scientists like Isaac Newton and Edmond Halley, noting that Newton accurately predicted Halley's Comet's return, while economists failed to predict the 2008 financial crisis.
- Economists often rely on complex mathematical formulas and models that assume human behavior is rational and organized, overlooking inherent randomness and uncertainty.
- The speaker references an article about 'The Economist in a Lab Coat' to illustrate the trend of increasing mathematical emphasis in economics.
- The speaker recounts a personal anecdote about his children's nanny, who was more effective at predicting the return of Halley's Comet than the economists were at predicting the financial crisis.
- The speaker suggests that economists are often unable to make predictions about human behavior (like when a comet will return or when a financial crisis will occur) with the same certainty as natural scientists predict physical events.
- The speaker concludes that economists must accept the inherent uncertainty in human affairs, which is often better understood by historians than by mathematicians.
- The speaker jokingly suggests that economists should be taught chaos theory and perhaps even hire a ski instructor or a personal chef to better understand human decision-making, contrasting this with the Queen of England's long reign and the expectation of predictability.

![Screenshot at 00:08: Mark Corner standing on stage in front of a large screen displaying the talk's title slide, 'Is this what economists dream of being? Scientists in white coats?', setting the stage for his critique of economic modeling.](https://ss.rapidrecap.app/screens/3RaQ2hVxlj4/00-00-08.png)

**Context:** Mark Corner delivers this TEDx talk at TEDxKULeuvenBrussels, using the theme of 'Organized Chaos' to question the reliance on overly complex and deterministic mathematical models in modern economics. He contrasts the predictable success of natural science predictions (like Newton predicting Halley's Comet) with the repeated failures of economists to foresee major events like the 2008 financial crisis, suggesting a fundamental flaw in their discipline's approach to human uncertainty.

## Detailed Analysis

Mark Corner opens by contrasting the predictable success of hard science, referencing Isaac Newton's accurate prediction of Halley's Comet's return 300 years later, with the failure of economists to predict the 2008 financial crisis. He notes that Newton's laws are universally applied, whereas economists struggle to predict human behavior. Corner describes reading an article about the increasing use of complex mathematics in economics, symbolized by the image of a Fibonacci spiral on the slide, comparing it to insects crawling across a page. He argues that economists, much like Newton, attempt to apply universal, deterministic rules to human affairs, which he believes is flawed. He uses the example of the Queen of England, who reigned for nearly a century, suggesting that even in politics, certainty is an illusion. Corner recounts how his children's nanny correctly predicted the return of Halley's Comet, while economists failed to predict the 2008 crisis. He asserts that the economic models, which often focus on cost-benefit analysis and assume rational actors, are incapable of capturing the inherent randomness and uncertainty of human life, which he believes historians are better equipped to understand. He humorously concludes that economists need to accept uncertainty and perhaps even learn from non-economic professions, like hiring a ski instructor or chef, to better grasp unpredictable human actions.

### The Failure of Prediction

- Newton accurately predicted Halley's Comet's return 300 years later
- Economists failed to predict the 2008 financial crisis
- The economists' approach is compared to a machine that runs down the bowels of the London School of Economics.

### Critique of Economic Modeling

- The increasing use of mathematics in economics is noted
- The speaker suggests economists try to make predictions about human behavior that are as certain as physical laws, which is impossible
- He contrasts this with the chaos theory that governs randomness.

### Historical Anecdote

- The speaker's nanny correctly predicted Halley's Comet's return
- Her son's family, who hired economists as consultants, were not prepared for the 2008 crisis
- The Queen of England's long reign is used as an example of political longevity vs. economic certainty.

### Conclusion

- Economists are more like historians than mathematicians because human behavior is fundamentally uncertain
- Economists need to accept uncertainty rather than seek overly complex mathematical certainty.

![Screenshot at 00:04: The opening slide showing TEDx KULeuvenBrussels event branding and sponsor logos \(Alken Maes, Stuvo, Nalu, KU Leuven\).](https://ss.rapidrecap.app/screens/3RaQ2hVxlj4/00-00-04.png)
![Screenshot at 00:07: The title slide for the talk: 'ORGANIZED CHAOS' displayed above a graphic representing a chaotic mind, setting the theme.](https://ss.rapidrecap.app/screens/3RaQ2hVxlj4/00-00-07.png)
![Screenshot at 00:11: The speaker, Mark Corner, begins his address, gesturing towards the screen displaying the question: 'Is this what economists dream of being?'.](https://ss.rapidrecap.app/screens/3RaQ2hVxlj4/00-00-11.png)
![Screenshot at 01:38: The speaker gestures broadly while transitioning to discussing the contrast between predicting comets and economic crises.](https://ss.rapidrecap.app/screens/3RaQ2hVxlj4/00-01-38.png)
![Screenshot at 03:55: The speaker emphasizes the difference between the certainty of physics and the uncertainty in human affairs.](https://ss.rapidrecap.app/screens/3RaQ2hVxlj4/00-03-55.png)