# The Iran War JUST got Worse | Futures are Crashing.

Source: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3Qzyy_l9nls
Recap page: https://rapidrecap.app/video/3Qzyy_l9nls
Generated: 2026-03-09T02:07:08.555+00:00

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## Quick Overview

Futures markets are crashing due to extreme oil price surges following the selection of the son of Khamenei as Iran's Supreme Leader, coupled with Donald Trump suggesting potential temporary special forces boots on the ground, which exacerbates geopolitical instability and prompts evacuations like the US embassy in Saudi Arabia.

**Key Points:**
- Futures markets sold off heavily on Sunday, March 8th, driven by a 17% increase in international crude oil (to $108/barrel) and a 19% surge in WTI, contrasting sharply with Friday's $90 price.
- The market reaction stems from the selection of the son of Khamenei as the new Supreme Leader in Iran, whom Donald Trump called "unacceptable" and who is deemed more extreme than his father.
- The US embassy in Saudi Arabia ordered non-emergency employees and family members to evacuate due to security risks, implying regional worsening, especially as Trump suggested potential temporary "boots on the ground" via special forces.
- The UN weapons inspectors previously calculated Iran possesses about 460 kg of highly enriched uranium at 60% purity, which requires only a few more weeks of processing to reach weapons grade.
- Donald Trump stated that any potential deployment of special forces would be at a later stage for raids on nuclear sites, claiming the Iranians "would be so decimated that they wouldn't be able to fight on the ground anyway."
- Goldman Sachs noted that foreign institutional investors have been major net sellers, contributing significantly to the observed market selloff.
- The Bank of England indicated uncertainty about looking past another energy shock, implying a risk of more aggressive "higher for longer" interest rate policies if the US coordinates.

**Context:** The analysis focuses on the market reaction occurring on a Sunday evening, March 8th, characterized by significant selling off in futures markets, particularly impacting oil prices. The primary catalysts identified are the internal political shift in Iran—the selection of a new, more extreme Supreme Leader—and external geopolitical comments from Donald Trump regarding potential military engagement. This situation is contrasted against recent market positions, such as JP Morgan's Friday assessment that oil damage was mostly complete, and the existing high enrichment level of Iran's uranium stockpile.

## Detailed Analysis

Futures markets experienced an extreme selloff due to geopolitical shockwaves originating from Iran, specifically the selection of the son of Khamenei as the new Supreme Leader, who is considered more conservative and extreme than his predecessor; this event immediately drove oil prices up by nearly 19% to $108 per barrel, contradicting prior assessments from firms like JP Morgan. Concurrently, Donald Trump introduced market uncertainty by suggesting the possibility of temporary special forces deployment, which prompted the US embassy in Saudi Arabia to evacuate non-emergency personnel due to heightened security risks. The underlying threat involves Iran's known nuclear capabilities, with UN inspectors having previously confirmed 460 kg of uranium enriched to 60%, close to weapons grade, which Trump suggested special forces might raid. The market pain is compounded by foreign selling, as reported by Goldman Sachs, and potential complications from Iran's decentralized military structure, including the large, widely spread militia known as the Besiege (BIJ). Furthermore, economic data softness, including declining retail sales and low underlying job growth projections by Goldman Sachs, coincides with this oil price shock, while the Bank of England signals potential prolonged high interest rates due to persistent inflation risks, complicating the Federal Reserve's position.

### Geopolitical Triggers

- Selection of Khamenei's son as Supreme Leader deemed unacceptable by Trump
- Israeli bombing of the meeting preceded the selection
- Embassy evacuations ordered in Saudi Arabia due to security risks

### Market Reaction and Oil Surge

- Futures tanking on Sunday evening
- Crude oil surged 17% (international) and WTI by 19% to $108 per barrel since Friday's $90 close
- Foreign institutional investors are major net sellers according to Goldman Sachs

### Iran's Nuclear Status

- UN inspectors calculated 460 kg of uranium enriched to 60%
- Requires only a few more weeks of processing for weapons grade
- Trump suggests raids on nuclear sites like Pickax Mountain with special forces

### Military Capabilities Analysis

- Iranian Revolutionary Guard (IRGC) has about 150,000 soldiers
- The Besiege militia could activate 11 million Iranians trained in guerrilla and suburban combat
- Military leaders operate in a 'patchwork mosaic' allowing decentralized decision-making

### Economic Outlook and Fed Policy

- Retail sales down 0.9% annualized since January per Goldman Sachs
- Underlying job growth projected low at 37,000
- Bank of England signals inability to look past new energy inflation shocks, implying higher rates for longer

### Investment Mentions

- Intuit (INTU) rebound from $349 seen as a bargain at $468
- SanDisk (SNDK) selling off after hitting high $600s, expected to continue as a commoditized product

### Upcoming Catalysts

- Weekly employment change on Tuesday
- CPI month-over-month expected at .3 (core .2) on Wednesday (11th)
- PCE data released on Friday the 13th