2026 Wars Won't Look Like You Think

Quick Overview

The speaker predicts that in 2026, the US military will face a manpower crisis leading to the failure of retention goals, necessitating a shift toward greater automation in artillery and potentially leading to NATO countries increasing their use of paid military gap years to fill personnel shortages.

Key Points: The speaker predicts the US will fail to meet recruiting and retention goals by 2026, creating a manpower bottleneck. This manpower issue will force greater reliance on automated systems, specifically predicting artillery will go automated. NATO allies, particularly the UK, may increase the use of paid military gap years (like the proposed UK program) to bolster personnel numbers. The speaker foresees continued, low-intensity hybrid warfare in the Middle East involving drones, missiles, and maritime pressure against shipping. Any criticism of the F-35 program in 2026 will be dismissed as ignorant, as the platform's capability will be proven superior to older systems. The conflict in Ukraine is predicted to continue as an attrition war, with Russia focused on mass production (cheap drones/shells) over expensive platforms like tanks.

Context: The video presents a series of geopolitical and military predictions for the year 2026, framed using a 'Prediction Bingo' card format. The speaker analyzes current global trends, including the war in Ukraine, Western military procurement strategies, and domestic US military recruitment challenges, to extrapolate future developments in warfare and defense policy.

Detailed Analysis

The speaker outlines several predictions for 2026, starting with the ongoing Ukraine War, which he expects to remain an attrition war where Russia relies on mass production of cheap assets (drones, missiles, bodies) rather than expensive platforms like tanks. He predicts continued maritime pressure in the Middle East (Red Sea flare-ups) and continued influence operations globally. A major domestic US prediction is the failure of US military recruiting and retention goals by 2026, creating a manpower bottleneck that will force the military to accelerate automation, specifically predicting artillery will go fully automated, making it a 'dead hobby' otherwise. He notes that NATO is moving toward countering threats through production capability (building more factories) and supply chain resilience, rather than just military confrontation. For Iran, he predicts they will continue to rebuild their SAM systems to leverage asymmetric advantages against expensive US platforms like the F-35. He also predicts the UK will increase its use of a paid military gap year program to address personnel shortages, noting that European nations are relearning how to fight a war of maneuver and logistics rather than just relying on expensive hardware. Finally, he predicts that commercial satellites will face increased jamming attempts by adversaries.