How This Country Overestimated Their Population by 7 Million People

Quick Overview

Papua New Guinea's official 2024 estimated population is 6.928 million, but the actual 2024 estimate based on modeling is 10.185 million, suggesting the country overestimated its population by approximately 3.257 million people due to difficulties counting remote, rural, and indigenous populations.

Key Points: Papua New Guinea's (PNG) official 2024 population estimate is 6,928,143, but modeling suggests the true figure is closer to 10,185,363, leading to an undercount of approximately 3.257 million people. The 2011 census figure of 7,275,324 was disputed and considered unreliable, contributing to the current discrepancy in population data. Counting in PNG is difficult due to 80% of the population living in rugged, mountainous, or remote rural areas, often without permanent housing structures, and significant language barriers (over 800 languages spoken). Countries with advanced census practices (like the US and Australia) utilize tools like satellite modeling, housing data, and household surveys, while PNG relied on older methods like ward record books and in-person enumeration (03:36, 05:16). The undercounted population, particularly in remote areas, results in real-world consequences, including receiving inadequate funding for healthcare, education, and infrastructure like bridges and hospitals (04:22). The official estimate of 6.9 million implies a 40% increase since 2011, whereas the modeled figure suggests a much larger expected increase of 129% (17 million people) (05:53).

Context: The video explores the significant discrepancy between the official population estimates and modeled figures for Papua New Guinea (PNG), highlighting the challenges inherent in conducting a national census in a geographically complex and culturally diverse nation. The speaker contrasts PNG's difficulties, stemming from rugged terrain and reliance on older counting methods, with the advanced techniques used by countries like the US and Australia, emphasizing how inaccurate census data impacts resource allocation for essential services.