A SUPER El Niño is Coming - What You NEED to Know | Two Bit da Vinci

The Gist

The title promises an impending super El Nino disaster. The real answer is that NOAA puts an 81 percent probability on a strong El Nino for late 2026, driven by historical warming fingerprints across the equatorial Pacific.

Quick Overview

NOAA forecasts an 81 percent chance of a very strong El Nino forming between October and December 2026 based on relative Nino 3.4 index projections. El Nino does not create new water or heat, but rather redistributes warm surface water and moisture across the Pacific basin through ocean and atmospheric feedback loops. Historical comparisons to 1877, 1982, and 1997 demonstrate that severe El Nino events generate profound shocks to global agriculture, fisheries, and regional weather systems.

Key Points: NOAA gives an 81 percent probability of a very strong El Nino occurring in the October to December 2026 season. The trade winds drive warm surface water westward toward Indonesia, creating a half meter height differential and an eight degree temperature gradient across the Pacific. El Nino occurs when trade winds weaken, allowing warm water to slosh back eastward and suppress nutrient rich upwelling off the coast of Peru. Peru reduced its Anchoveta fishing quota to 1.91 million tonnes for the season due to declining adult fish populations. India forecasted its monsoon season at 90 percent of normal rainfall, placing a 60 percent probability on a deficient season that threatens over a billion people. Colorado State University cut its Atlantic hurricane forecast down to nine named storms due to El Nino generated wind shear. The 1997 to 1998 El Nino generated nearly 20 billion dollars in total benefits for the United States, including heating savings and zero snowmelt floods.

Context: El Nino and La Nina form the El Nino Southern Oscillation, which is a coupled ocean and atmosphere climate pattern spanning the Pacific Ocean. The system acts as a pendulum that shifts warm water and severe weather patterns between Asia and South America every few years.