# Michael Burry's Big Short on Nvidia & Palantir Will Make Millionaires (Here's How) Source: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-_R1dPYPbxU Recap page: https://rapidrecap.app/video/-_R1dPYPbxU Generated: 2025-11-09T16:32:41.059+00:00 --- ## Quick Overview Millionaires are made when the stock market crashes, and the bigger the decline, the bigger the opportunity, especially for investors who know which stocks to buy and how to be greedy when others are fearful, which is the best way to get rich without getting lucky, by relying on data rather than gut feelings to find undervalued stocks like Amazon, CoreWeave, and Nvidia. **Key Points:** - The primary strategy for wealth generation is to buy stocks when the market is crashing and others are fearful, such as during the recent S&P 500 dip that mirrored the 2008 crash. - Michael Burry reportedly placed a $1.1 billion short position against AI stocks, including Palantir (PLTR) and Nvidia (NVDA), betting the AI bubble will pop. - The Fear & Greed Index currently sits at 21 (Extreme Fear), which historically marks a good time to buy stocks, as seen when the index hit a low of 21 in April 2025, shortly before the S&P 500 bottomed. - Amazon's ad revenue is projected to be the third largest by 2025 ($69.30 billion), behind Alphabet and Meta, indicating significant growth potential despite analyst underestimation. - CoreWeave, an AI infrastructure provider, showed massive revenue growth (up 207% YoY to $1.213 billion in Q2'25), suggesting strong underlying demand for AI workloads. - Meta's fair value is estimated at $1,136.62 per share (45.3% undervalued) based on DCF models factoring in massive AI spending, while CoreWeave's fair value is estimated at $424.83 per share (75.5% undervalued). ![Screenshot at 0:05: A woman with red hair looks intensely at a computer screen in a dark, futuristic data center environment, representing the intense focus required to analyze market data.](https://ss.rapidrecap.app/screens/-_R1dPYPbxU/00-00-05.png) **Context:** This video provides an investment strategy focused on capitalizing on market fear and downturns, citing historical data and specific stock valuations to argue for buying stocks like Amazon and AI infrastructure companies when sentiment is low. The presenter outlines a four-step process for identifying these opportunities, emphasizing data-driven decisions over emotional reactions, and referencing the bearish short positions taken by 'Big Short' investor Michael Burry against high-flying AI stocks. ## Detailed Analysis The video asserts that the best time to get rich in the stock market is during crashes when fear is high, advocating for a strategy of being greedy when others are fearful, which necessitates using data rather than emotion. The speaker outlines four steps: understanding fear/greed, avoiding common mistakes, creating a buying plan for undervalued stocks, and staying informed. The video highlights the current market sentiment as 'Extreme Fear' (Index 21), similar to the April 2025 market bottom. Specific stocks mentioned include Amazon, which is undervalued by 17.1% ($294.90 fair value vs. $244.41 current price) based on DCF models, and Meta, which shows a 45.3% undervaluation ($1,136.62 fair value vs. $621.71 current price). Furthermore, AI infrastructure companies like CoreWeave are presented as major growth opportunities, showing 207% YoY revenue growth, with its stock showing a 75.5% undervaluation ($424.83 fair value). The video concludes by urging viewers to use data to identify buying opportunities in these core AI-related sectors when fear is pervasive. ### Investment Strategy Steps - 1. Understand Fear & Greed - 2. Find Mistakes - 3. Make a Top 3 Stocks Plan - 4. Stay Informed ### Market Sentiment Indicators - CNN Fear & Greed Index currently shows 'Extreme Fear' at 21, down from 'Neutral' (29) last week and 'Greed' (59) one year ago. ### Market Momentum (SPX) - S&P 500 dipped below its 125-day moving average in April 2025, a historical buying signal, and the VIX volatility index peaked near 50 on April 8th, coinciding with the market bottom. ### Stock Deep Dive - Amazon is projected to be the third-largest digital ad revenue company by 2025 ($69.30B), behind Google and Meta, showing strong growth. ### Valuation Analysis (Amazon) - Current Price $244.41 vs. Fair Value $294.90 (17.1% undervalued) using a Discounted Cash Flow model. ### Valuation Analysis (Meta) - Current Price $621.71 vs. Fair Value $1,136.62 (45.3% undervalued) based on DCF models. ### AI Infrastructure Growth (CoreWeave) - Revenue up 207% YoY to $1.213B in Q2'25, showing strong demand; Fair Value $424.83 vs. Current Price $104.01 (75.5% undervalued). ### Michael Burry's Position - Burry shorted $1.1 billion in AI stocks, including PLTR and NVDA, betting the AI bubble will pop. ![Screenshot at 0:05: A woman with red hair intensely focuses on a dark computer screen in a high-tech setting, illustrating the seriousness of data analysis.](https://ss.rapidrecap.app/screens/-_R1dPYPbxU/00-00-05.png) ![Screenshot at 0:27: An NVIDIA stock chart showing a significant 5-day decline of -9.59% to $188.15, setting the context for market fear.](https://ss.rapidrecap.app/screens/-_R1dPYPbxU/00-00-27.png) ![Screenshot at 0:55: On-screen agenda highlighting the four steps of the investment strategy: Fear & Greed, Finding Mistakes, Top 3 Stocks, and Staying Informed.](https://ss.rapidrecap.app/screens/-_R1dPYPbxU/00-00-55.png) ![Screenshot at 1:58: A table displaying Michael Burry's large short positions against Palantir \(PLTR - 66.04% of portfolio\) and Nvidia \(NVDA - 13.51% of portfolio\).](https://ss.rapidrecap.app/screens/-_R1dPYPbxU/00-01-58.png) ![Screenshot at 3:45: University of Michigan Surveys of Consumers chart showing sentiment indices hitting lows comparable to 2022, indicating poor consumer outlook.](https://ss.rapidrecap.app/screens/-_R1dPYPbxU/00-03-45.png) ![Screenshot at 6:41: The CNN Fear & Greed Index meter points to 'Extreme Fear' at a reading of 21, confirming a bearish sentiment environment.](https://ss.rapidrecap.app/screens/-_R1dPYPbxU/00-06-41.png) ![Screenshot at 7:34: A chart showing the S&P 500 dipping below its 125-day moving average in April 2025, identified as a historical buying signal.](https://ss.rapidrecap.app/screens/-_R1dPYPbxU/00-07-34.png) ![Screenshot at 9:51: A bar chart illustrating Amazon's projected 2025 digital ad revenue \($69.30B\), positioning it as the third-largest player behind Google and Meta.](https://ss.rapidrecap.app/screens/-_R1dPYPbxU/00-09-51.png) ![Screenshot at 10:01: A Discounted Cash Flow model comparison showing Amazon's stock as 17.1% undervalued, with a fair value of $294.90 against a current price of $244.41.](https://ss.rapidrecap.app/screens/-_R1dPYPbxU/00-10-01.png)